A New Insight Into the Centennial Cycle Phase Similarity Model for Solar Activity

ABSTRACT

We developed a novel centennial cycle phase similarity model to characterize solar activity cycles. For the 25‐th solar cycle, our analysis yields a yearly mean total sunspot number of , with the peak activity projected to occur in years. The relative error between our predicted results and the observed values (154.7) is approximately 3.853% when the uncertainty factor is ignored. The cycle length is estimated by our model to be approximately years, and the relative error compared with the observed value (11.0 years) is approximately 4.545%. Our predictions exhibit excellent concordance with the studies by Cao et al. and Dani & Sulistiani, showing errors of approximately 9.86% and 0.93% for the informer model and the machine learning model, respectively. We project that solar cycle 26 will commence around years, with an approximate duration of years, reaching its maximum in years and attaining a peak maximum average of relative sunspot number value of approximately . Without accounting for uncertainty, our results align closely with the predictions of Luo & Tan, with an error of approximately 2.234%. Our model will represent a pioneering approach to the century‐scale prediction of solar cycles.