A Multiplicative Model for Rapid Assessment of the Feasibility of Capital Investment in the Restoration of Social Infrastructure in De-Occupied Territories

Abstract

Full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine has caused extensive destruction of social infrastructure in de-occupied territories, which, given limited funding and high security risks, has highlighted the need for effective tools for the initial screening of investment projects. The aim of the study was to develop a tool for the rapid assessment of the viability of investment proposals based on a composite indicator that takes into account security threats, social needs and the acceptable unit cost relative to the benchmark of reconstruction projects. The study was based on a comprehensive approach utilising methods of descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, mathematical modelling and multi-criteria analysis. It was found that only 10.6 % of local authorities from the official list of affected areas had approved recovery plans as of early 2025, and none of the analysed plans fully utilised the project prioritisation methodology. A multiplicative feasibility index has been developed, calculated as the product of a security coefficient, a current-utilisation indicator and an economic coefficien. For the Slatyn Lyceum, a feasibility index of 0.3 was calculated, reflecting the impact of security risks due to the facility’s location in a potential combat zone, despite high social need and unit-cost reasonableness; this result was consistent with the actual postponement of works. For the pre-school education facility in Voznesensk, an index of 0.4 was obtained due to low current utilisation despite a safe location and economic efficiency, which was broadly consistent with the project’s non-implementation due to the absence of an acute social need. In contrast, an index of 0.7 was calculated for the Irpin Lyceum, reflecting an optimal combination of all three factors and corresponding to the successful implementation of the project. The practical significance lies in the creation of a standardised tool for the initial screening of investment proposals for local authorities, regulatory bodies and international donors, which could potentially be integrated into the state digital ecosystem for recovery management after additional testing of administrative usability, interoperability with DREAM and performance across a wider project portfolio, to support rather than automate project selection and to inform, rather than determine, the allocation of limited public resources.