A Multiple Soil Threats Assessment for Europe by 2050

ABSTRACT

European soils are exposed to multiple interacting soil threats (STs), challenging the European Commission's objective of restoring healthy soils by 2050. This study provides the first integrated EU‐scale projection of four major soil threats—soil compaction, soil organic carbon loss, soil erosion and soil sealing—under two IPCC climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5), while accounting for land‐use change. Unlike previous assessments that examined threats separately, this research analyzes their co‐occurrence through the concept of “soil threat bundles”. Using digital soil mapping and a k‐means clustering approach, the study identified 20 ST bundles and their spatial variation across Europe by 2050. Results show that around 40% of EU soils will not face significant threats, while approximately one‐third will experience only one major threat. 22% of soils will be exposed to two simultaneous threats, and between less than 1% (SSP1‐2.6) and more than 5% (SSP5‐8.5) will experience three interacting threats. Overall, nearly 60% of EU soils could be affected by at least one threat by 2050, a proportion comparable to current estimates of unhealthy soils in Europe. The findings highlight strong differences between climate scenarios. Under SSP1‐2.6, land‐use change is the second main driver of soil threat distribution. In contrast, under SSP5‐8.5, climate change becomes the second main driver, intensifying soil compaction, SOC loss, and erosion, particularly in Central Europe, western England, and the Pyrenees. The study emphasizes the importance of integrated assessments to design targeted soil protection policies within the EU Green Deal and Soil Strategy for 2050.