A Multi-Source Machine Learning Framework for Segment-Level Travel Time Prediction in Urban Arterial Corridors: Toward Sustainable Traffic Management

Accurate short-term travel time prediction is foundational for sustainable urban mobility and intelligent transportation systems on urban arterial corridors, where travel conditions are shaped by interacting traffic, weather, and public transport factors. This study proposes a multi-source machine learning framework for segment-direction-level prediction in the Denizli city center. Floating car data (FCD), Traffic Control Center (TCC) inductive loop detector measurements, historical weather, and public transport indicators were integrated into a 15 min time-segment structure. The final dataset includes 60 segment-direction targets. Performance was evaluated using Linear Regression, Random Forest, LightGBM, and LSTM under a chronological train-validation-test design. Tree-based ensemble models produced the most stable overall performance, with LightGBM and Random Forest yielding similarly low pooled test errors. Segment-level analyses revealed clear spatial and temporal heterogeneity, showing no single model is universally superior across all links. By providing reliable traffic-state information, the framework enables efficient traffic management and may indirectly reduce delay, fuel use, and emissions; these environmental effects were not quantified. SHAP-based interpretation showed that temporal and traffic-state variables dominate predictions, while weather and public transport provide complementary value.