A Methodological Approach to Determining Threshold Values of Economic Security Indicators for a Peri-Agglomeration Region

Assessment of economic security depends not only on the set of indicators but also on the boundaries used to interpret them. For a peri-agglomeration region, a universal threshold may show a formally favorable state while failing to capture dependence on the agglomeration core. The study develops a methodological approach to threshold setting based on the principle of strategic relevance. The methods include comparative analysis of threshold-setting approaches, indicator-threshold diagnostics, analysis of strategic planning documents, and benchmarking. A hierarchy of reference points is proposed: regulatory boundaries for indicators with stable economic meaning; regional strategic targets for development indicators; agglomeration-core parameters for spatial interaction indicators; and the region’s own revenue base for fiscal threats. Indicator dynamics is used as a control of the direction of change. Testing on the Moscow Region reveals a divergence between formally favorable and structurally problematic indicators. Low unemployment and a high density of SMEs coexist with a crisis-level share of commuters, declining SME employment, and a high share of potential personal income tax losses. The scientific novelty lies in replacing a single threshold scale with a justified choice of benchmark according to the economic nature of the indicator and the spatial position of the region.