A GIS-Based Approach to Identify Suitable Locations for Deep-Draft Port Development Along the Brazilian Coast

The rapid growth in vessel size associated with global maritime trade is placing increasing pressure on port infrastructure worldwide. In Brazil, many existing ports face structural limitations due to insufficient navigational depth and limited opportunities for spatial expansion, often constrained by urban encroachment. In this context, identifying suitable coastal locations for deep-draft port development has become a key strategic challenge for long-term planning. This study develops a GIS-based spatial suitability model to identify segments of the Brazilian coastline with favourable conditions for deep-draft port infrastructure capable of accommodating large vessels, including post-Panamax ships. The approach considers physical constraints, environmental restrictions and basic logistical connectivity within a multi-criteria spatial framework implemented through map algebra. The model is conceived as a strategic screening tool to support early-stage decision-making rather than a detailed feasibility assessment. The results identify nine coastal locations with the highest suitability scores, indicating that highly favourable conditions for deep-draft port development are spatially limited. Notably, one of these candidate locations partially overlaps with an existing port-related cluster, suggesting consistency between the model outputs and real-world port development patterns. In contrast, large portions of the southeastern coastline (particularly in São Paulo and Paraná) exhibit lower suitability due to a combination of urban pressure, environmental constraints and limited depth conditions. Overall, the findings reveal a spatial mismatch between Brazil’s main economic core and the coastal areas with more favourable natural conditions for new port infrastructure. The proposed framework contributes a transparent and transferable spatial decision-support tool that can assist policymakers in identifying priority areas for future port development and in balancing investments between the expansion of existing ports and the development of new locations.