A Framework for Augmenting Simulation-Based Building Energy Models with Earth Observational Microclimate Data Using Machine Learning Predictions

Accurate urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is constrained by mismatches between standard climate inputs and actual urban microclimate conditions. This study introduces a scalable, bottom-up, framework that integrates EnergyPlus building energy modeling simulation outputs with Earth observational and geographical-based urban morphology data, which are enhanced through machine learning techniques to improve energy demand predictions in urban settings. Applied to Los Angeles (LA), California, we evaluate the representativeness of typical meteorological year (TMYx) sampling sites against actual urban environmental conditions. We find that while satellite-derived surface temperatures show reasonable alignment with average city conditions, significant discrepancies are observed in urban form metrics such as tree cover, street cover, and building density, suggesting that TMYx stations should be placed in denser urban areas. We augment EnergyPlus simulations for 19 single-family buildings, with remote sensing data using machine learning models, to generate city-wide residential energy consumption heatmaps corrected for microclimate conditions. Models capture substantial intra-urban variation, with predicted energy use differing by approximately 10% between neighborhoods. Feature importance analysis highlights land surface temperature as a key predictor, underscoring its relevance to building energy research. We also find the majority of TMY3 sampling sites to be in low-vulnerability areas, underscoring the structural mismatch that is embedded in urban form and climate. This framework offers a scalable path for integrating urban microclimate effects into energy modeling to enable more precise and equitable energy policy and planning.