A diversified hedging strategy: can Hun Manet balance the influence of China and the West?

In August 2023, Cambodia underwent its first change in head of government in three decades when power transitioned to Hun Manet. This milestone marked a new era in the kingdom's modern history. Domestically, it was viewed as a natural dynastic continuation, but internationally, observers anticipated that the new leadership might diversify foreign relations and initiate reforms. However, the first years of Hun Manet’s tenure have revealed continuity rather than a paradigm shift. Phnom Penh has focused on refining its diversified hedging model. This strategy involves a small state caught in great power rivalry avoiding alignment with any single bloc. The goal is to maximize economic benefits from all partners while mitigating security risks. This article assesses the effectiveness and structural limitations of Cambodia's foreign policy under the new administration. It examines three key dimensions of Cambodian diplomacy: maintaining the strategic foundation of ties with China, including the modernization of the Ream Base and the Funan Techo canal project; deepening relations with alternative partners, such as Japan and France; and pursuing pragmatic reengagement with the United States. Additionally, the paper analyzes economic diplomacy, particularly Cambodia's outreach to Gulf states to diversify trade. The research identifies critical constraints on Phnom Penh's strategy, including asymmetric dependence on Beijing, geopolitical friction over infrastructure projects, and nontraditional security challenges. Notably, Cambodia has emerged as a hub for transnational cyber scam networks. Ultimately, the article concludes that the long-term viability of Cambodia's hedging strategy hinges on bolstering state institutional capacity rather than mere diplomatic maneuvering.