A Digital Twin-Oriented Tripartite Evolutionary Game and Simulation Framework for Public–Private–Platform Collaboration in Humanitarian Supply Chains

Humanitarian supply chains often face sudden demand surges, disrupted transportation, limited inventory visibility, and fragmented coordination under disaster uncertainty. Digital twins can improve real-time visibility and adaptive resource allocation, but their effectiveness depends on stable collaboration among public, private, and platform actors. This study develops a digital twin-oriented tripartite evolutionary game and simulation framework involving the public sector, private logistics/material enterprises, and a digital twin platform provider. The model examines how digital twin-oriented governance, active resource and data sharing, and high-quality platform operation co-evolve under bounded rationality. Stability analysis identifies the conditions for convergence to the desired collaborative equilibrium. Numerical simulations, including global sensitivity analysis, stability-region analysis, scenario comparison, stochastic evolutionary dynamics, and Monte Carlo tests, show that enterprise sharing costs and platform operation costs are key barriers, whereas subsidies, platform payments, credible constraints, digital twin visibility, collaboration synergy, and disaster uncertainty promote collaboration. Scenario comparison further indicates that technology-only digital twin construction is insufficient, while adaptive incentive-compatible governance generates shorter convergence time and lower collaboration loss. The findings highlight digital twins as socio-technical coordination infrastructure requiring incentive-compatible governance in humanitarian supply chains.