A Digital Decision-Support Framework for Green Hydrogen-Based Steam Production in the Food Industry

The decarbonization of industrial steam production, representing up to 57% of energy use in the food industry, is critical for achieving EU climate neutrality goals. This study developed an integrated digital framework for the research project Hy4GreenSteam to optimize green-hydrogen integration through advanced predictive modeling. The employed LightGBM gradient-boosting algorithms were trained on 68,697 PV power measurements and 57,000 meteorological observations from 2020 to 2022. A “Production-Split” methodology was introduced for 24 h ahead forecasting, segmenting training into high (>2 kW) and low (≤2 kW) production regimes to manage solar heteroscedasticity. Results show the 15 min model achieved an R2 of 0.868 and the 1 h model an R2 of 0.832, while the day-ahead model—trained exclusively on information available at forecast issue time—achieved an R2 of 0.701, a 70% relative improvement over same-time-yesterday persistence. A complementary regime analysis shows that the production regime is predictable with 90.7% accuracy and quantifies the accuracy headroom of regime-specialized models (oracle R2 0.794). These methods were integrated into a real-time React-based platform that calculates optimal H2/CH4 blending; for the reference pilot configuration, driven by measured on-site PV generation, the computed CO2 emission reduction reaches 34% relative to natural-gas-only operation during high-solar operating intervals. Predictive modeling combined with a Digital Twin interface provides a TRL 6 decision-support solution, demonstrated in a relevant industrial environment, for managing renewable sources in industrial hydrogen applications.