A Data-Driven Multilayer Network Framework for Strategic Option Assessment

Contemporary security competition is increasingly characterized by complex interactions across political, economic, military, and cultural domains, with countries employing combinations of cross-domain strategic options to achieve their objectives. Existing network-based assessment methods often rely on expert judgment to determine national capability levels and network-edge weights, thereby introducing subjectivity and limiting reproducibility. This study proposes a data-driven multilayer network framework for assessing the direct and spillover effects of strategic options. First, a multidimensional indicator system is developed to quantify political, economic, military, and cultural capabilities. Second, using entropy weighting method, derive indicator weights from cross-border information dispersion data. Publicly available data from WGI, UNDP, World Bank WDI, Diplometrics, Elcano Global Presence, SIPRI, and COW are used for capability assessment. Then, a vertical–horizontal propagation mechanism is subsequently introduced to model cross-domain and cross-country effects. Finally, an illustrative case study shows how the framework computationally distinguishes direct effects, cross-layer transmission, and third-country spillovers under the specified assumptions. Sensitivity experiments further show that the option ordering remains unchanged under separate ±10% and ±20% perturbations of the illustrative vertical and horizontal attenuation coefficients, although the impact magnitudes vary. The results demonstrate the computational feasibility and comparative interpretability of the proposed framework under the stated assumptions.