A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty

The 2011 Fukushima disaster and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic are two major 21st century events that were least expected while being highly disruptive, having an immediate as well as longer-term impact on shipping operations. However, while pandemics are a recurrent phenomenon of the “known-knowns” type, the combination of phenomena which led to Fukushima had no assigned probability; hence, no preparedness was in place, as this was practically a unique occurrence in shipping. Considering significant shipping incidents of various less or more uncommon etiologies, such as the capsizing of vessels, missile attacks on merchant ships or vessel-onto-bridge collisions, this conceptual paper puts forward a consequence-based approach for assessing and managing shocks in the maritime domain, especially the ones classified in the “unknown-unknowns” or “Black Swan” categories. In the context of preparedness theory, the authors propose the adoption by shipping businesses, in parallel to any other risk approaches and tools, of the Assessment-reaction-Recovery-Conversion (ArRC) framework for managing risk and of relevant key recovery indicators which may assist in (a) increasing resilience through focusing the recovery planning on consequence-oriented, root-neutral reactions and (b) in promoting a “bounce-back-better” frame of mind and action plan, contributing to faster and easier recovery after a shock of any type.