A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach for Linking Energy Security and Primary Energy Supply Reduction Targets in Pakistan

This study examines the effects of reducing primary energy supply by 5%, 10%, and 15% through policy interventions from 2005 to 2050 on energy resource diversification, energy and oil import dependency, environmental emissions and energy security in Pakistan. Applying a CGE framework, the study finds that policy scenarios lead to decrease in cumulative primary energy supply, a rise in renewable energy, and a drop in greenhouse gas emissions. The results also show improved energy security, with a reduction in net energy import dependency, a decrease in net oil import dependency and a increase in energy resource diversification. These findings suggest that setting primary energy supply reduction targets could strengthen energy security in Pakistan.