A Comprehensive Analysis of Air Quality and Its Relationship With Meteorological Conditions in the Tula Region, Mexico

ABSTRACT

The Mexican electricity sector has drawn significant environmental scrutiny due to its persistent reliance on high‐sulfur heavy fuel oil for power generation in central Mexico. While numerous studies have evaluated regional macro‐scale air quality, a high‐resolution diagnostic mapping of the localized meteorological drivers that trigger critical pollution episodes remains essential. This study quantifies the non‐linear coupling between unit‐specific daily fuel oil consumption, dynamic atmospheric emission rates, and planetary boundary layer constraints within the industrialized Tula region—home to the “Francisco Pérez Ríos” thermoelectric power plant. The integrated WRF/CALPUFF numerical modeling system was executed across 160 climatologically representative days, objectively derived via a multi‐year (2010–2024) HYSPLIT trajectory clustering analysis, to simulate the ground‐level dispersion profiles of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter. Synoptic‐to‐local scale meteorological fields revealed a severe structural vulnerability: the region's complex topography and frequent low‐dispersion configurations heavily suppress horizontal and vertical ventilation. Consequently, simulated 24‐h average ground‐level sulfur dioxide concentrations systematically violated both the Mexican Air Quality Standard (NOM‐022‐SSA1‐2019) and World Health Organization guidelines on 97% of the evaluated representative days, developing intensive exposure footprints over an extensive 2000 km ² mesh extending up to 18 km downwind into surrounding urban centers. Conversely, near‐surface particulate matter concentrations remained well within regulatory thresholds (5 to 20 μg·m ⁻³ ), confirming the high operational efficiency of the facility's post‐combustion fly ash control systems. Crucially, the findings reveal a distinctive meteorological decoupling during low‐demand periods; even under minimized industrial emission strengths, restricted convective mixing heights (50 to 500 m) are sufficient to trigger acute ambient standard violations. This study contributes a validated, high‐resolution operational framework that demonstrates how local meteorological trapping dictates ground‐level air quality more deterministically than absolute source strength alone, providing a predictive benchmark for seasonal fuel‐switching strategies in developing nations.