A Combined PESTLE and AHP Approach for Prioritising Nature-Based Solutions in European Wetlands

Wetlands provide vital ecosystem services, yet realising their potential for sustainable business and community benefit through Nature-based Solutions (NbS) requires understanding the broader conditions that enable or hinder restoration efforts. This article presents a combined methodology for prioritising wetland NbS-related business opportunities, developed within the Horizon 2020 project Restore4Life. Drawing on site-specific catalogues of business-related ecosystem services across five countries, opportunities were identified in two clusters: direct uses (water storage, irrigation, water-based recreation, fish farming and angling, biomass harvesting and grazing, carbon sequestration, and environmental monitoring), and indirect uses (tourism, product processing, and sales). To assess the external conditions shaping these opportunities, this study combines PESTLE analysis (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, a multi-criteria method. Five stakeholder sessions were held in Restore4Life Associated Regions in Portugal, Sweden, Armenia, Belgium, and Ukraine, where translated questionnaires assessed the relative importance of PESTLE factors among research, conservation, and business stakeholders. Pairwise comparisons were processed via the eigenvector method in AHP, geometrically averaged into regional group priorities, and synthesised with sub-factor priorities within each PESTLE segment. Results of methodology application in Ponto da Lima (Portugal) show that legal factors, particularly the presence of a stable legal framework, and environmental conditions, especially physical geography and climate, are perceived as the most critical enablers of NbS business development. Economic factors, notably access to funding and employment conditions, rank moderately, while social factors highlight education and environmental awareness as more influential than consumer attitudes. Political factors are dominated by concerns over bureaucratic burden rather than broader policy support, and technological factors rank consistently lowest, suggesting institutional and regulatory barriers outweigh technical ones. These findings underscore the need for stronger legal and governance frameworks to support Ponto da Lima wetland NbS uptake, with market-based mechanisms for ecosystem services becoming more relevant as institutional conditions mature.