A BIM‐Based Probabilistic Approach for Risk Assessment in Construction Projects

A considerable number of construction projects fail to meet their target dates and cost estimates. This highlights the need for solutions that could address the root causes of various risks, leading to the use of 4D‐building information modeling (BIM), which can support interactive and continuous risk assessment. Although some 4D‐BIM software systems have risk analysis modules and integrate several risk analysis techniques within the BIM environment, the majority cannot perform quantitative risk analysis or predict root causes. Previous research has operated under the assumption that risks are independent. Current research therefore requires a more advanced method that accounts for interdependencies among risks and addresses the complex nature of construction projects. Bayesian networks (BNs) offer a promising approach to achieving these advancements. In addition, the development of BIM provides a visual and information‐rich environment for incorporating construction risk knowledge into risk management. This article aims to leverage the strengths of both BIM and BN techniques. It combines them to establish a novel approach to support systematic risk assessment in construction projects within the BIM environment and develops a prototype tool in Navisworks. The developed tool enables the prediction of potential risks associated with the project tasks they may affect, real‐time risk visualization within the 4D‐BIM environment, and the identification of the most likely causes of risk events. Finally, a practical residential project demonstrates the model’s validation.