A 30‐Year Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation Indices Across Local Levels of Nepal

ABSTRACT

Hydrometeorological extremes are intensifying across the Hindu Kush Himalaya, yet climate adaptation in Nepal remains constrained by the limited availability of climate information at local decision‐making scales. We present the first nationwide assessment of climate extremes across all 753 Local Level Administrative Units (LLAUs) of Nepal during 1995–2024 using seven precipitation‐based and five temperature‐related climate indices derived from validated ERA5‐Land data. Trends and hydroclimatic regimes were evaluated using multiple statistical and clustering approaches. We found a pervasive warming signal across Nepal. Mean daily temperature (TMm) increased significantly in 56.4% of LLAUs at a national mean rate of +0.20°C decade ⁻¹ , while no LLAU recorded significant cooling. Concurrently, compound hot day–night events (TX3TN3) increased by 51% and compound cold events (TXb3TNb3) declined by 55%, indicating a nationwide shift toward a warmer thermal regime. Precipitation responses were spatially heterogeneous. The central and eastern mid‐hills experienced increases in annual wet‐day precipitation (PRCPTOT; +38.2 mm decade ⁻¹ ), heavy‐rainfall days (R20mm; +1.65 days decade ⁻¹ ) and rainfall intensity (SDII; +0.17 mm wet‐day ⁻¹  decade ⁻¹ ), whereas increasing consecutive dry days (CDD; +1.20 days decade ⁻¹ ) were concentrated exclusively in the Terai lowlands. We further identified three coherent hydroclimatic regimes corresponding broadly to the Himalayan, mid‐hill and Terai regions, demonstrating that climate change is producing geographically differentiated risk profiles rather than a uniform national response. Our findings provide an LLAU‐scale evidence base for locally targeted climate adaptation, water‐resource management and disaster‐risk reduction in Nepal.