The impact of water conservation strategies on unmet demand in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The global water crisis is intensifying due to climate change, population growth, and rapid urbanization, leading to increased water demand, especially in urban areas. Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, is experiencing severe water shortages caused by rapid urbanization, population growth, industrial expansion, and ageing infrastructure. This study aims to assess the water supply–demand gap and explore various water conservation strategies to mitigate this shortfall. Using the Water Evaluation and Planning System, the research evaluates current and projected water supply–demand dynamics and the effectiveness of conservation strategies on unmet demand. The findings indicate that water demand in Addis Ababa is expected to rise from 382 Mm3 in 2023 to 915 Mm3 by 2043, a 140% increase. In 2023, only 40% of this demand is being met, resulting in a substantial supply–demand gap of 219 Mm3. The water supply system is significantly strained by high population growth and improved living standards. Implementing water conservation measures, such as retrofitting the ageing distribution infrastructure and adopting water reuse policies, could substantially reduce unmet demand. Projections show a reduction of up to 45%, from 752 to 646 Mm3 by 2043 compared to the reference scenario.