Machine Learning to Forecast Airborne Parietaria Pollen in the North-West of the Iberian Peninsula

Pollen forecasting models are helpful tools to predict environmental processes and allergenic risk events. Parietaria belongs to the Urticaceae family, and due to its high-level pollen production, is responsible for many cases of severe pollinosis reactions. This research aims to develop different machine learning models such as the random forest—RF, support vector machine—SVM, and artificial neural network—ANN models, to predict Parietaria pollen concentrations in the atmosphere of northwest Spain using 24 years of data from 1999 to 2022. The results obtained show an increase in the duration and intensity of the Parietaria main pollen season in the Mediterranean region (Ourense). Machine learning models exhibited their capacity to forecast Parietaria pollen concentrations at one, two, and three days ahead. The best selected models presented high correlation coefficients between 0.713 and 0.859, with root mean squared errors between 5.55 and 7.66 pollen grains·m−3 for the testing phase. The models developed could be improved by increasing the number of years, studying other hyperparameter ranges, or analyzing different data distributions.