Investigating the Influencing Factors and Correlation Between Popularity and Emotion of Public Opinion During Disasters: Evidence from the “7.20” Rainstorm in China

Disasters not only directly cause casualties and property losses but also significantly impact public opinion. In order to identify the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of public opinion during disasters, this paper put forward an analytical framework for analyzing public opinion, which clarified the relationships among key characteristics of public opinion and emphasized the role of official agencies in the processes of information releasing and information feedback. Guided by this framework, this paper collected the public opinion on Sina Weibo during the extraordinary “7.20” rainstorm in Henan Province, China. By analyzing the changes in the discussion regarding both the popularity of and the emotion displayed in Sina Weibo comments over time, it was found that the evolution of public opinion was closely related to disaster development. Novel informational content or innovative forms of information contribute to enhancing the discussion of popularity, while the events or emotions expressed within the information elicit corresponding emotional responses from the public. As popularity increased, the prevalence of negative emotions was observed to diminish concurrently with a rise in the proportion of neutral emotions. Based on these results, some suggestions on the management of public opinion during disasters were put forward.