Estimating the potential for prevention of dementia in Germany
Iris Blotenberg, Wolfgang Hoffmann, Jochen René Thyrian- Psychiatry and Mental health
- Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
- Geriatrics and Gerontology
- Neurology (clinical)
- Developmental Neuroscience
- Health Policy
- Epidemiology
Abstract
Background
As the German population ages, the number of people with dementia is predicted to rise considerably in the upcoming decades. In the absence of a disease‐modifying treatment, prevention is key to curb the growing numbers of dementia cases. In order to tailor prevention approaches to the German context, knowledge about the potential for prevention in Germany and the most prevalent modifiable risk factors is vital.
Method
We calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) for eleven potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Relative risks were taken from a recent review, prevalence estimates and weights were calculated using data from the German Ageing Survey. Weights were used to adjust for associations between risk factors, they were calculated using a principal component analysis based on tetrachoric correlations between risk factors. Potential impact fractions (PIF) were calculated to estimate the effect of a reduction in risk factor prevalence on the future number of dementia cases.
Result
More than a third of dementia cases in Germany are associated with eleven potentially modifiable risk factors. The largest number of cases are associated with hearing impairment and hypertension, among others. A significant reduction in risk factor prevalence could theoretically reduce the number of dementia cases in 2050 by more than 150.000.
Conclusion
The number of dementia cases in Germany is rising, but there is considerable potential for prevention. Further advancement of prevention approaches for healthy ageing and their implementation into routine care should be fostered.