Dynamics and Control of Sugarcane Smut Using Deterministic and Stochastic Epidemic Models

ABSTRACT

Sugarcane smut disease is a serious issue for farmers as it can greatly reduce sugarcane yield. It is important to manage this disease effectively to prevent economic losses. Farmers can use resistant varieties of sugarcane, remove diseased plants manually, or apply appropriate fungicides to control the spread of the disease; however, the effectiveness of these measures is uncertain. Deterministic and stochastic models are formulated and used to analyze the transmission and control dynamics of the disease. Qualitative analyses of the deterministic model using the basic reproduction number are used to show the conditions under which the disease can be eradicated or persist. Sensitivity analyses are used to determine the influence of each parameter on the disease dynamics. The stochastic model is used to determine the probability of disease extinction or persistence. Both models show the importance of control measures that force the reproduction number below unity. One of the most important controls is shown to be that which reduces the contact rate between the plants and the pathogen. Overall, our models could be useful for making decisions on the effective management of sugarcane smut outbreaks in any endemic area.