Do Theoretical Assumptions of Geographic Profiling Hold When Scrutinising Commuter Serial Rape Offenders in South Africa?

ABSTRACT

Geographic profiling (GP) can be regarded as vital within the apparatus of investigating serial offenders. Since prevailing theories focus on offenders emanating from developed countries, the aim of this study was to examine, amongst others, the uncertainty that exists regarding their relevance in the South African context. This study, therefore, focused on South African commuter serial rapists and, in particular, their correlation with distance decay, the least effort principle, and buffer zones. While the overall data revealed a strong link between theories related to crime pattern, routine activity, awareness, and activity space, theories about distance decay, buffer zones, and the least effort principle had far weaker associations. Fundamentally, the study challenged existing assumptions that a commuter serial rapist profile could not be determined prematurely in an investigation, highlighting the ability to distinguish commuter offenders based on their directional behaviour within their convex hull(s). The research found that understanding these distinctions underscores the need for a theoretical perspective that better grasps the spatial reality of crime in this context.