Actual, Potential, and Non-Participants: Advancing the Differential Analysis of Protest Participation

In this article, we contribute to the analysis of protest participation on a gradient from non- to actual participation. Using survey data from six European countries, we take the analysis beyond a binary differentiation between participants and non-participants. We evidence a participation gradient underpinned by a combination of social and political variables and separate patterns that allow for distinctions between non-, potential, and actual protesters. We establish that some factors have a gradual, linear, relation to protest participation, increasing the likelihood of moving from non-participation to potential participation and from potential to actual participation. Second, we find evidence of a punctuated rather than a linear participation gradient in as far as a range of variables distinguish protesters and potential protesters from non-participants but do not differentiate them from each other. Our findings provide practical insights into mobilization pathways while also inviting further research into intervening factors influencing protest behavior.